The King of Clay Stumbles

.
Rafael Nadal's shock 4th-round exit leaves the men's tournament at Roland Garros wide open.

If yesterday's loss of Ozeki (=Champion) Novak Djokovic to M11W Philipp Kohlschreiber was a surprise, today's defeat of Yokozuna (=Great Champion) Rafael Nadal to M8W Robin Soderling was a shocker. In contrast to the brilliant but inconsistent Serb, Nadal is not known for sudden lapses in performance -- he always seems to find a way to fight himself into a match, at least when he is healthy. But today Nadal failed to find a receipt against the unassuming Swede's powerful and agressive game.

Nadal's quest to become the first player to win Roland Garros five times in a row is therefore over. As much as this commentator has taken a liking to the humble and charismatic Majorcin, this result is good for tennis. The men's game had gotten at risk of becoming too predictable and uncompetitive, especially on clay.

The loss changes nothing a bout Nadal's lifetime Yokozuna status, of course, but his and Djokovic's early exits throw the men's tournament wide open. Favorite to win is now arguably Nadal's fellow Yokozuna Roger Federer, who lost the past three French Open finals to Nadal. If he nails this one, he would become only the third player of the open era to win all four slams.

But this is not all. All of a sudden it seems quite possible that this tournament could create a new male Ozeki. Andy Murray, who has already regained his Sekiwake (=Junior Champion I) spot by making surprisingly quick work of the young Croat M3W Marin Cilic, has now a fairly decent chance to make the final, with Nadal removed as a likely semifinal opponent. And in the other half of the draw, it seems not unthinkable any more that Komusubi (=Junior Champion II) Juan Martin del Potro or ex-Sekiwake M1W Jo-Wilfried Tsonga -- who will face off tomorrow -- would win the tournament. As both reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, a tournament win in Paris would propel them to Ozeki.

A Komusubi promotion is guaranteed to come out of the quarterfinal between Soderling and ex-Sekiwake M2E Nikolay Davydenko, who ended in straight sets Fernando Verdasco's spell at Komusubi.

In the ladies' tournament, Dinara Safina confirmed her newly gained Ozeki rank by blasting past French lady Aravane Rezai. Safina has looked flawless so far, but in the quarterfinals, Belarussian M1W Victoria Azarenka may present a stiffer challenge than Safina's previous opponents. Azarenka beat ex-Ozeki Ana Ivanovic in straight sets in round 4. Ivanovic has now failed to reach the quarterfinals in all grand slam tournaments since she won least year's French Open, and therefore drops out of the Sanyaku (=Championship) ranks altogether.

A Komusubi promotion will result from the quarterfinal between rising star M7W Dominika Cibulkova from Slovakia and former Ozeki Maria Sharapova, who is coming back from injury. Sharapova has made prevailing in gruelling three-setters her specialty at this tournament, this time edging past Na Li from China. It's good to have her back -- together with her compatriot Safina, the combatative and charismatic Sharapova has arguably the best shot at establishing a persistent challenge to the Yokozuna Venus and Serena Williams.

Djokovic, Dementieva go Kadoban

.

With the first three rounds played, some Sanyaku ranking decisions have already been taken.

A tired looking Novak Djokovic lost his 3rd-round match to the unspectacular but solid Maegashira (=non-champion) M11W Philipp Kohlschreiber. The young Serb therefore goes kadoban for the second time in his career. Should he fail to reach the quarterfinals also in Wimbledon, he will lose the Ozeki (=Champion) rank that he first earned at the US Open 2007. Also kadoban goes Elena Dementieva, who had re-obtained her Ozeki title only at this year's Australian Open.

An early exit took also long-standing Yokozuna (=Grand Champion) Venus Williams. Thus, In Wimbledon her status as an active Yokozuna is on the line--a loss before the quarterfinals and Venus would be considered inactive. But then, Wimbledon is Venus' best tournament.

The 4th round--starting tomorrow (Sunday) will bring further Sanyaku-rank decisions. Komusubi (=Junior Champion II) Fernando Verdasco battles M2E and former Sekiwake (=Junior Champion I) Nikolay Davydenko. A win and Verdasco earns a first-time Sekiwake promotion, a loss an he drops out of the Sanyaku (=Championship) ranks altogether. Similarly, Andy Murray gets re-promoted to Sekiwake or demoted to Maegashira when he plays M3W Marin Cilic. The winner of the fourth-round match between Komusubi Juan Martin del Potro and former Sekiwake M1W Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be in the Sanyaku ranks after the French Open. And former Ozeki Andy Roddick has his Sekiwake rank on the line when he battles ex-Komusubi M2W Gael Monfils.

In the ladies' tournament, freshly promoted Ozeki Dinara Safina, who has looked superb thus far, battles unseeded French lady Aravane Rezai to avoid kadoban. If she wins she may meet defending French Open Champion, former Ozeki and current Komusubi Ana Ivanovic in the quarterfinals, who has looked no less impressive but first must get by M1W Victoria Azarenka to stay in the Sanyaku ranks. Komusubi Jelena Jankovic would make it back to Sekiwake if she wins her 4th round match, but her opponent, unseeded Sorana Cirstea, looks like no pushover. Finally, ex-Ozeki M1E Svetlana Kuznetsova would re-enter the Sanyaku ranks if she beats ex-Komusubi M3E Angieszka Radwanska.

French Open 2009: Banzuke and Preview

.
The long and gruelling slam-less period betwen the Australian and the French Open is finally over. Here is how the top players line up for the this year's elite tournament at Roland Garros:

• As has been the case since last year's Wimbledon tournament, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer lead the men's banzuke as Yokozuna (=Grand Champions), followed by long-term Ozeki (=Champion) Novak Djokovic. For Nadal, this is the first time he enters Roland Garros as Yokozuna.



• The ladies' banzuke is once again headed by the Williams sisters. The Ozeki slots are occupied by two Russian ladies: Australian Open finalist Dinara Safina in her first apearance as ozeki, and the re-promoted Elena Dementieva.



• No player is on a Yokozuna run. There is also no particularly strong candidate for an Ozeki promotion, even though three men and one woman would obtain the rank if they reached the final: Sekiwake (=Junior Champion I) Andy Roddick (for who this would be the third Ozeki promotion of his career), the Komusubi (=Junior Champions II) and US-Open finalists Andy Murray and Jelena Jankovic, and the Komusubi and Australian Open semi-finalist Fernando Verdasco.



• Frenchman Gilles Simon (M1) and Spaniard Carla Suarez Navarro (M8) would obtain a first-time sanyaku promotion if they reach the quarterfinals.



• Komusubi Vera Zvonareva had to withdraw with an ankle injury, and will get demoted to Maegashira after the tournament.

The table below shows the top banzuke ranks. The Sanyaku ranks are determined by the Yokozunatennis ranking system, the Maegashira ranks are filled up according to the seeding list. The full banzuke is published here.

Men

Career rank 1/	Seed	East	Current Rank	West	Seed	Career rank 1/
High Sanyaku (Champion Ranks)
Y	1	Rafael Nadal	Y	Roger Federer	2	Y
O	4	Novak Djokovic	O	-	-	-
Lower Sanyaku (Junior Champion Ranks)
O	6	Andy Roddick	S	-	-	-
S	3	Andy Murray	K1	Fernando Verdasco	8	K
K	5	Juan Martin del Potro	K2	-	-	-
High Maegashira
-	7	Gilles Simon	M1	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	9	S
S	10	Nikolay Davydenko	M2	Gael Monfils	11	K
S	12	Fernando Gonzalez	M3	Martin Cilic	13	-

Women

Career rank 1/	Seed	East	Current Rank	West	Seed	Career rank 1/
High Sanyaku (Champion Ranks)
Y	2	Serena Williams	Y	Venus Williams	3	Y
O	1	Dinara Safina	O	Elena Dementieva	4	O
Lower Sanyaku (Junior Champion Ranks)
-	-	-	S	-	-	-
S	5	Jelena Jankovic	K1	Ana Ivanovic	8	O
K	(6)	Vera Zvonareva*	K2	-	-	-
High Maegashira
O	7	Svetlana Kuznetsova	M1	Victoria Azarenka	9	-
-	10	Caroline Wozniacki	M2	Nadia Petrova	11	S
K	12	Agnieszka Radwanska	M3	Marion Bartoli	13	S

* withdrew
1/ Career-high Sanyaku rank, if applicable.

The Top 101 Players of the Open Era--an Update

.
The first Yokozuna-Tennis top 101 ranking of the open era was compiled right after Wimbledon 2008. Two grand slam tournaments have been played since,thus it is time to take another look.

Men’s Ranking

Dai-Yokozuna (great Grand Champion) Roger Federer (13 GS titles—4 finals—3 semifinals—2 quarterfinals) remains where he is, inspite of another grand slam title at the US Open and a lost final down under. Well, as the #2 of the open era he cannot be ranked much higher—only the great Rod Laver remains ahead of him. To pass season-grand-slam-winner Laver, Federer would need to win the French Open or close to 20 grand slam tournaments, both of which seems unlikely.

Just behind Federer follow the other two Dai-Yokozuna Pete Sampras and Bjorn Borg—Sampras because of Federer’s greater versatility across surfaces ad greater peak-dominance; Borg because of Federer’s larger number of GS titles. But I am well aware that these three could be ranked in any order.

The new Australian Open champion, Yokozuna (=Grand Champion) Rafael Nadal (6-2-2-2) moves up one rank to #13, just behind Stefan Edberg, and now ahead of John Newcombe... full article

Sanyaku Ranks after the Australian Open 2009

.
The Sekiwake (= Junior Champions I) Dinara Safina and Elena Dementieva get promoted to Ozeki (= Champion), as a result of their consistent strong performances at the recent grand slam tournaments. For Dementieva this is a re-promotion to the rank she already held briefly in early 2005; but Safina becomes an Ozeki for the first time and is the 29th female Ozeki of the open era.

Other notable promotions are: former Ozeki Andy Roddick moves from Komusubi (= Junior Champion II) up to Sekiwake; while Fernando Verdasco, Juan Martin del Potro and Vera Zvonareva earn the first sanyaku (= championship) ranks of their careers at Komusubi. By contrast Andy Murray, Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic (a former Ozeki) lose Sekiwake rank and drop to Komusubi. Maria Sharapova (a long-time former Ozeki) and Patty Schnyder fall out of the sanyaku ranks alltogether.

The Yokozuna (= Grand Champions) -- Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Serena and Venus Williams -- keep their ranks, of course, as these are for life; Novak Djokovic remains Ozeki.

The full post 2009 Australian Open statisitcs, inclucing the complete new sankyaku line-up and the quarterfinal-through-final results, are published here.

Another One for the Ages

.
The two active Yokozuna of mens' tennis play another dramatic 5-set final, and the winner is again Nadal

It does not get much better than this: for more than four hours Roger Federer (Y1E) and Rafael Nadal (Y1W) battled each other last night, with the momentum swinging several times, before Nadal finally imposed himself again and won the 6th grand slam title of his career -- the first on hardcourt. Federer's disappointment was only too visible in end. For a long time he looked more likely to win than his opponent, however: Federer had more chances to break serve (19-16), played more winners (71-50), even gained more points overall than Nadal (174-173) -- but in the end the brilliant Swiss fell again short when his game deteriorated markedly in the fifth set.

For Federer this is a setback in regaining the #1 spot and in equalling Pete Sampras record of 14 grand slam titles. It does not hurt him in my open era ratings though -- there he is already #2, ahead of fellow Dai-Yokozuna (=great Grand Champion) Sampras due to his greater versatility and peak dominance. To become #1 and bypass Rod Laver, Federer would have to either win the French Open or accumulate close to 20 grand slam titles -- both seems rather unlikely.

It is to be hoped that Federer does not lose motivation after this renewed disappointment. Tennis needs Federer. It may be hard for him to regain the #1 spot, but I for my part have little doubt that on his day he still can beat Nadal. Moreover, he still tends to display more dominance vis-a-vis the other players than the Spaniard. Admittedly though, age does not play in his favor. Federer is 27, most great players start to lose consistency at this age.

Nadal moved up one place in my open era ratings and is now #13, just behind Boris Becker and Stefan Edberg and ahead of John Newcombe. But who would doubt that he could move up further soon, his possibly as early as at the upcoming French Open, a tournament he has dominated in the past four years. Given how similar career achievements are between #6 (Rosewall) and 13, Nadal may well be the open era #6 in a year or two.

Fortunately for us, Nadal is still only 22 years old and could have many more years at the top ahead of him -- if his body continues to support his immensly physical game.