Saturday, July 11, 2015

Promotions and Demotions Following the 2015 Wimbledon Tournament

With two Yokozuna (=Grand Champions) playing the mens' final, all promotion and demotion decisions have already been taken. There are many more demotions than promotions, as all Yokozuna (who hold rank for life) bar Rafael Nadal and the mens' Ozeki (=Champions, i.e. Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka) did well - leaving little to gain for the other players.

Sanyaku Rank Changes
Player (career rank if different) To From
Promotions
Timea Baczinsky Sekiwake* Komusubi
Garbine Muguruza Sekiwake* Maegashira
Richard Gasquet Komusubi Maegashira
Agnieszka Radwanska (ex-Sekiwake)Komusubi Maegashira
Madison KeysKomusubi Maegashira
Demotions
Eugenie BouchardSekiwake Ozeki
Simona HalepSekiwake Ozeki
Lucie SafarovaKomusubi Sekiwake
Kei NishikoriKomusubi Sekiwake
Tomas Berdych (ex-Ozeki)Maegashira Komusubi
David Ferrer (ex-Ozeki)Maegashira Komusubi
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (ex-Sekiwake)Maegashira Komusubi
Petra Kvitova (ex-Ozeki)Maegashira Komusubi
Ana Ivanovic (ex-Ozeki)Maegashira Komusubi
Elena Makarova (ex-Sekiwake)Maegashira Komusubi

* New career high

Eternal Serena

Serena: number 21 and going strong
Dai-Yokozuna (=great Grand Champion) Serena Williams won her 21st grand slam title today, defeating Spaniard Garbine Muguruza in two hard fought sets. With this, Serena completes a "Serena slam" - i.e., she holds all four slam titles at the same time - for the second time in her career (the first time was more than 12 years ago after the 2003 Australian Open). She is on track to win a calendar year grand slam if she wins the 2015 U.S. Open in late summer. And she is only one slam short of Steffi Graf's record of 22 open era grand slam titles.

Serena's importance for the ladies' game of the past 15 years is hard to overstate. Imagine how the game would have evolved without her: making the simplifying assumption that her losing final opponents would have won the title, her sister, the inactive Yokozuna (=Grand Champion) Venus Williams would have 12 slams (instead of 7) and be a Dai-Yokozuna. Co-Yokozuna Maria Sharapova would have 8 titles and scratching on Dai (great) status. Ex-Ozeki (=Champion) Victoria Azarenka would have 4 slams and be a Yokozuna. The Yokozuna Justine Henin, Martina Hingis and Lindsay Davenport would all have one title more. And, maybe most importantly, there would be 7 (!) additional slam champions: Jelena Jankovic, Dinara Safina, Vera Zvonareva, Agnieszka Radwanska, Caroline Wozniacki, Lucie Safarova, and Garbine Muguruza. All these were stopped by only Serena on the way to grand slam glory.

Maria Sharapova played one of her best Wimbledon tournaments in years, but was without a chance in the semis against Serena. After the two Yokozuna, there is now a gaping hole - there is not a single Ozeki. The 2014-wonders Simona Halep and Eugenie Bouchard both crashed again out early and get demoted to Sekiwake (=Junior Champion I), while Muguruza gets a first-time promotion to Sekiwake, falling one win (i.e., the final) short of Ozeki. The fourth Sekiwake is French Open semifinalist Timea Baczinsky, who confirmed her strong form with a quarterfinal at Wimbledon.
Garbine Muguruza


The Komusubi (=Junior Champion II) ranks will be filled with Lucie Safarova, who could not quite confirm her strong performance at Roland Garros and hence loses Sekiwake rank, ex-Sekiwake Agnieszka Radwanska, who made her first grand slam semifinal since the 2014 Australian Open, and Madison Keys, who returns to Komusubi rank after reaching her second grand slam quaterfinal. Victoria Azarenka gave Serena the arguably toughest match in the quarterfinals and seems firmly on the comeback trail after her injury of last year, but doesn't have the results yet for a return to the sanyaku (=championship) ranks.

Despite Serena's dominance, the number and density of quality players lining up behind her is impressive. Sharapova, Azarenka, Muguruza, ex-Ozeki Petra Kvitova, Halep, Bouchard - they all seem capable of winning a slam with authority, provided Serena is not at her best. And with Keys or Swiss Belinda Bencic, exciting talent is moving up. The low into which ladies' tennis slipped in the second half of the 2000s - at the same time when mens' tennis reached arguably and all-time high - is behind us. Ladies' tennis is in good shape.

The ladies' sanyaku ranks going into the 2015 US Open are therefore as follows:

Women
Career rank 1/ East Current Rank West Career rank 1/
High Sanyaku (Senior Champion Ranks)
Dai-Y Serena Williams Y Maria SharapovaY
- - O --
Lower Sanyaku (Junior Champion Ranks)
O Eugenie Bouchard S1 Simona HalepO
S Garbine Muguruza S2 Timea BaczinskyS
S Lucie Safarova K1 Agnieszka RadwanskaS
K Madison Keys K2 --

1/ Highest sanyaku rank achieved in a player's career