Saturday, January 31, 2015

Ladies' Grand Slam Tournaments are Simple Events...

... where 128 women chase a small ball, and in the end Serena always wins.

The Australian Open 2015 confirmed once more: when Dai-Yokozuna (=great Grand Champion) Serena Williams is fit and focused, she is near-impossible to beat. Williams struggled in the early rounds against prospects like Elina Svitolina and Garbine Muguruza. She fought as much with what seemed a bad cold as with her opponents. Fellow Yokozuna Maria Sharapova put up a trademark fight in the final. No matter, in the end the winner was again Serena, winning the 19th grand slam tournament of her career. Serena has now won more than one-third of all grand slam tournaments since the 2002 French Open (18 out of 52), and more than half since Wimbledon 2012 (6 out of 11). Not since the days of Steffi Graf 20 years ago has a  female player been that dominant.

The stats of the Serena-Sharapova final reveal a key source of Serena Williams' superiority: her first serve. Its power, speed and precision is without equal in the ladies' game, and grants her many free points. Serena out-aced Sharapova - who has a good serve herself - 18-5, which accounts for more than the total points difference in the match (76-64). On second serve, Sharapova actually beat Williams 14-9, but on first serve Serena outscored Sharapova 37-28.

Elsewhere in the tournament, the Ozeki (=Champions) Eugenie Bouchard and Simona Halep held rank, although for both the tournament was arguably a mild disappointment, with relatively clear losses in the quarterfinals. Serena's sister Venus reached her first grand slam quarterfinal since 2010. Another quarterfinal in the next three slams and she will reactiviate her - currently dormant - Yokozuna status.

Madison Keys, Komusubi
Petra Kvitova failed to back up her Wimbledon 2014 triumph for the second slam running and gets demoted to Sekiwake (=Junior Champion I). She will share the rank with Ekaterina Makarova, who confirmed her consistently good form by reaching her third grand slam quarter- and second semi-final in succession. Another semifinal at the French Open and Makarova will surge to Ozeki.

The Komusubi (=Junior Champion II) ranks will be filled with ex-Ozeki Viktoria Azarenka, who is fighting back from injury, ex-Sekiwake Caroline Wozniacki, and - the discovery of the tournament - US-prospect Madison Keys. The hard-hitting Keys defeated Kvitova in round three and gave Serena Williams, for one set, a scare in the semifinal. This earns Keys a first-time sanyaku (=championship) promotion: she is the 60th female Komusubi of the open era.

The ladies' sanyaku ranks going into the 2015 French Open are therefore as follows:

Women
Career rank 1/ East Current Rank West Career rank 1/
High Sanyaku (Senior Champion Ranks)
Dai-Y Serena Williams Y Maria SharapovaY
O Eugenie Bouchard O Simona HalepO
Lower Sanyaku (Junior Champion Ranks)
O Petra Kvitova S Ekaterina MakarovaS
O Viktoria Azarenka K1 Caroline WozniackiS
K Madison Keys K2 --

1/ Highest sanyaku rank achieved in a player's career

Friday, January 30, 2015

Promotions and Demotions Following the 2015 Australian Open

The finals of the Australian Open are not yet played - and what finals promise these to be, with a Yokozuna/Ozeki (Djokovic/Murray) matchup in the mens' tournament, and two Yokozunas (Serena Williams, Sharapova) competing for the ladies' title.

But promotions and demotions have already been determined. With the top players dominating the tournament, there are many more demotions than promotions.

Ekaterina Makarova, Sekiwake
  • There are no promotions into the higher sanyaku (=championship) ranks. Quarterfinalists Kei Nishikori and Ekaterina Makarova (picture) both fell one win short of clearing the "great hurdle" to Ozeki (=Champion) and stay at Sekiwake (=Junior Champion I). Fellow quarterfinalist Venus Williams fell one win short of re-activiating her long dormant Yokozuna (=Grand Champion) status - another quarterfinal at one of the next three slams would be enough. 

  • All active Yokozuna stay active - the Dai-Yokozuna (=great Grand Champions) Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Serena Williams as well as the "normal" Yokozuna Novak Djokovic and Maria Sharapova. Nadal needs to get to the quarterfinals at the French Open, however, to avoid that his Yokozuna status switches to dormant.

  • Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Eugenie Bouchard, and Simona Halep all hold rank at Ozeki, as all made the quarterfinals or better. Freshly baken Ozeki Marin Cilic missed the Australian Open and goes kadoban (has to reach the quarterfinals at the French Open to avoid demotion).

  • Petra Kvitova gets demoted to Sekiwake, after failing to back up her success at Wimbledon 2014 in the next two grand slams.

    Nick Kyrgios, Komusubi
  • Semifinalist and Ex-Ozeki Tomas Berdych raises back up to Sekiwake (from Komusubi).

  • Two-time quarterfinalist Nick Kyrgios and semifinalist Madison Keys get first-time promotions into the sanyakyu ranks at Komusubi (=Junior Champion II). Quarterfinalist and ex-Sekiwake Milos Raonic holds rank at Komusubi.

  • Ex-Ozeki David Ferrer and Viktoria Azarenka both get demoted from Sekiwake to Komusubi after losing in round 4, as does Caroline Wozniacki. Gael Monfils, Shuai Peng, Sara Errani (ex-Sekiwake) and Na Li (retired ex-ozeki) drop out of the sanyaku ranks.


    Sanyaku Rank Changes
    Player (career rank if different) To From
    Promotions
    Tomas Berdych (ex-Ozeki) Sekiwake Komusubi
    Nick Kyrgios Komusubi* Maegashira
    Madison KeysKomusubi* Maegashira
    Demotions
    Petra KvitovaSekiwake Ozeki
    David Ferrer (ex-Ozeki)Komusubi Sekiwake
    Viktoria Azarenka (ex-Ozeki)Komusubi Sekiwake
    Caroline WozniackiKomusubi Sekiwake
    Gael MonfilsMaegashira Komusubi
    Li Na (ex-Ozeki, retired)Maegashira Komusubi
    Sara Errani (ex-Sekiwake)Maegashira Komusubi
    Shuai PengMaegashira Komusubi

    * New career high