Kvitova a New Female Ozeki, another "Big 4" Male Semifinal

.
21-year old Czech Petra Kvitova became the 31st female Ozeki (=Champion) of the open era yesterday, by beating Italian rank-and-filer Sara Errani in a tense but not close quarterfinal, 6-4, 6-4. Whenever Kvitova found the range of her penetrating ground strokes and did not rush herself, she was in control of the match. Kvitova will play veteran Ozeki Maria Sharapova in the semifinals, who blasted a brave but even more overmatched Ekaterina Makarova off the court, 6-2, 6-3. The semifinal will be a repeat of last year's Wimbledon final. At the time Kvitova controlled a Maria Sharapova who struggled with her serve, but if Sharapova serves as she did in this quarterfinal, and displays the same selection of hard, variable, attacking groundstrokes, she should be able to give Kvitova a hard time.

The ladies' game has been in transition for several years now, without a clear indication to where the game would transition. The current Yokozuna (=Grand Champions) - Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters, and Venus Williams (if she returns) - all broke through in the late 1990s. On average, one out of three Ozeki advances eventually to Yokozuna. However, since Clijster's Ozeki promotion in 2003, nine more female players have made it to the second highest rank - Myskina, Sharapova, Dementieva, Kuznetsova, Mauresmo, Ivanovic, Safina, Zvonareva, Li - without advancing to Yokozuna later. And some starlets even rose to #1 of the WTA rankings who made it no further than Sekiwake (=Junior Champion I - Jankovic, Wozniacki). It's time for a new generation Yokozuna, and the strong and smart Kvitova appears to have the game that puts a Yokozuna career within reach. Note that Sharapova could of course still make it to Yokozuna herself - she needs "just" two more Grand Slam titles.

More generally, with Serena Williams hampered by injury, the semifinal line-up - Kim Clijsters (Yokozuna), Maria Sharapova (Ozeki), Petra Kvitova (Ozeki-to-be), and Victoria Azarenka (Sekiwake-to-be and possible Ozeki if she wins the tournament) - is one of the strongest of recent years, and should guarantee more fine tennis in the days to come.

In the mens' tournament, Yokozuna Novak Djokovic and Ozeki Andy Murray had little difficulties with their quarterfinal opponents David Ferrer (ex-Sekiwake and ATP #5) and Kei Nishikori, seeting up another all "Big 4" semifinal. Since Wimbledon 2010, the Big 4 have booked 24 out of 28 Grand Slam semifinal spots. As a result, the Ozumo-type ranking gets even more one-sided - after the Aussie Open there won't even be a male Sekiwake any longer, the only Sanyaku ranked players other than the Big 4 will be Tomas Berdych (ex-Ozeki) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (currently still Sekiwake) at Komusubi (=Junior Champion II).

The Dai-Yokozuna and playing legends Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will set the semifinals off tonight. It should be good.

A Yokozuna Performance by Kim Clijsters on her (Probably) Last Trip Down Under

.
Yokozuna (=Grand Champion) Kim Clijsters outmuscled and outplayed world #1 Caroline Wozniacki yesterday in a quarterfinal match played under stifling heat, leaving no doubt who qualifies as a real top player in ladies' tennis. Wozniacki's trademark ball-machine type defensive performance was just not enough against the fast, determined, varied game of Clijsters - and whenever Wozniacki tried to take the initiative herself it backfired. Only toward the end of the second set did Wozniakci have a part of the match, when Clisjters seemed both a tad nervous faced with repeated chances to close out the match and affected by the punishing heat conditions, otherwise it was all Clisjters.

Wozniacki will get re-promoted to Sekiwake (=Junior Champion I) after this tournament, and I believe this captures more accurately where she stands at this stage of her career than her ATP ranking. More generally, this match once again illustrated the transitional stage at which the ladies' game is. When the seasonsed Yokozuna-warhorses Serena Williams and Kim Clijsters are fit, they seem to be able to dominate the younger generation of players almost at will. Also note that Clijsters was just a solid Ozeki (=Champion) during the first portion of her career until 2007, in a field that sported, besides the Williams sisters, the likes of Justine Henin, Lindsay Davenport, and a prime Maria Sharapova. Returning 2 1/2 years and a baby later, Clijsters is now a strong (albeit often injured) Yokozuna in what looks a decimated field.

Maybe things will change with a new bunch of players such as Petra Kvitova and Victoria Azarenka. Azarenka overcame ex-Komusubi (=Junior Champion II) Agnieszka Radwanska in a three-setter quarterfinal yesterday and makes it to Sekiwake for the first time in her career. And Wimbledon champion Kvitova has a chance to even secure an Ozeki promotion if she wins her quarterfinal against Italian outsider Sara Errani.

In the mens' tournament, my prediction that ex-Ozeki Juan Martin del Potro could give Dai-Yokozuna Roger Federer a tough time did not exactly come true, as a relaxed and confident Federer cruised through in three sets, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2. Komusubi and ex-Ozeki Tomas Berdych gave Federer's fellow Dai-Yokozuna Rafael Nadal a little more to think and sweat about, but in the end Nadal controlled the splendid but volatile Czech at the decisive moments of the game, winnning in four sets. Let's see whether David Ferrer (ex-Sekiwake) or Kei Nishikori have a chance to prevent another all-"Big 4" semifinal against Yokozuna Novak Djokovic/Ozeki Andy Murray, respectively.

Australian Open 2012 After One Week

.
The Australian Open 2012 are down to the last 8 - and while there are few surprises on the men's side, the ladies' tournament looks wide open and may well produce a new Ozeki - or two.

In the men's tournament, the Yokozuna (=Grand Champions) Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer have been crusing through the early rounds, as has been Ozeki (=Champion) Andy Murray. The "Big 4", who secured 14 out of 16 semifinal sports in 2011, have so far lost a total of 2 sets - Andy Murray in the first round against young American Ryan Harrison, and Djokovic in the 4th against an inspired ex-Ozeki and local favorite Lleyton Hewitt. The main upset thus far has been the 4th round loss of Sekiwake (=Junior Champion I) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to up-and-coming Japanese Kei Nishikori. Tsonga will be demoted to Komusubi (=Junior Champion II) as a result. Komusubi (and ex-Ozeki) Tomas Berdych defended his rank by beating Nicolas Almagro in a testy 4th round match.

With the quarterfinals coming up, who stands the best chnace of breaking into the phalanx of the "Big 4"? I rank first ex-Ozeki Juan Martin de Potro (picture), who's been looking better with every round and will meet Federer in the quarterfinals - the very Federer he beat in the 2009 U.S. Open final, before a wrist injury forced del Potro into a long pause from the tour. Berdych may also have some chance against Nadal, especially as there are question marks about the latter's knee. Nishikori and David Ferrer (ex-Sekiwake) are outsiders against Murray and Djokovic, respecitvely.

None of the quarterfinalists outside the Big 4 is on an Ozeki run, unless del Potro wins his second Grand Slam title.

The ladies' tournament could not be more different. Yokozuna (=Grand Champion) Serena Wiliams exited early, hampered arguably by a foot injury. The other Yokozuna, Kim Clijsters, barely survived her 4th round match in a repeat of last year's final against Sekiwake (and ex-Ozeki) Na Li (Li drops to Komusubi as a result). Clijsters injure her ankle in the match, it is not clear yet whether she can play her quarterfinal. Maria Sharapova defended Ozeki rank with a hard fought 4th-round victory over ex-Komusubi Sabine Lisicki.

The field appears wide open, with no less than three ladies having a chance of becoming the 31st female Ozeki of the open era: Wimbledon champion, Komusubi and ex-Sekiwake Petra Kvitova if she reaches the semifinals (in her way is unheralded Italian Sara Errani), world #1 and Sekiwake Caroline Wozniacki if the reaches the final, and Komusubi Victoria Azarenka if she wins the tournament. All three have looked very strong in the early rounds.

Novak Djokovic Shows why he is a Yokozuna

.
It was Yokozuna (=Grand Champion) against Yokozuna, world #1 against world #2, defending champion against last year's finalist - and in the end Novak Djokovic - who had been promoted to Yokozuna only at Wimbledon this year - had the better end for himself. If there were any lingering doubts whether he is worthy of a Yokozuna title these were put to rest tonight once and for all.

After a somewhat disappointing start during which Rafael Nadal seemed tense and restrained, the match exploded in the third set, when Nadal, with his back to the wall, suddenly played at the highest level and produced incredible shots. He was met though by a Novak Djokovic who was not prepared to retreat an inch. Trading repeated breaks (with Djokovic serving for the match at 6-5) the set went into the tiebreaker that Nadal claimed.

In the fourth set both players looked like damaged goods. At first Djokovic seemed in worse shape than Nadal, grabbing his hip and receiving treatment on the court. But it was Nadal who failed to run down balls, overhit shorts, and made the errors - a far cry from the fellow who had showed up in the third. In the end Nadal lost 2-6, 4-6, 7-6, 1-6.

Little will happen to the sanyaku (=championship) ranks as a result of these U.S. Open, as the semifinals were completed by the third Yokozuna, Roger Federer, and Ozeki (=Champion) Andy Murray. Given the dominance of these four, there is little space for anyone else. Only Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at Sekiwake (=Junior Champion I) and ex-Ozeki Tomas Berdych at Komusubi (=Junior Champion II) have secured spots on the sanyaku banzuke going into the 2012 Australian Open. Compare this to no less than 12 sanyaku ranked ladies.

Men

Career rank 1/	East	Current Rank	West	Career rank 1/
High Sanyaku (Senior Champion Ranks)
Y	Novak Djokovic	Y1	Rafael Nadal	Y
Y	Roger Federer	Y2	-	-
O	Andy Murray	O	-	-
Lower Sanyaku (Junior Champion Ranks)
S	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	S	-	-
O	Tomas Berdych	K	-	-

Samantha Stosur Takes New York

.
How on earth did she do that?

Yes, we knew Samantha Stosur had Grand Slam champion potential, having reached the final at Roland Garros in 2010 and losing - as the favorite - to Francesca Schiavone. And we knew that with her muscular, top-spin based game she was a difficult match-up for Dai-Yokozuna (=great Grand Champion) Serena Williams. But beating this Serena Williams, who had come back from long-term injury with renewed intensity and force? Who had outclassed Stosur only a month ago in Toronto? Who had rushed through the tournament toying with her opponents almost at will? And beating her 6-2, 6-3?

But here she is: Sam Stosur, having crushed the arguably greatest female player of her generation, and winning her first grand slam title at the age of 27. Stosur dominated for most of the match - only at the beginning at the second set, when Serena set some energy free after getting into a dispute with the chair umpire, did it look for a moment as if the match could move away from Stosur. But the Australian kept her composure, and outmuscled, outpressured Williams until the latter crumbled - a feat few players have done with a healthy Serena since the latter broke through into world class some 10 years ago.

Stosur gets re-promoted to Sekiwake (=Junior Champion I) as a result, and rank she held already in 2010. She would make it even to Ozeki (=Champion) if she reached the quarterfinal at her home slam down under - something she has not managed to do thus far, however. Serena reactivates her Yokozuna status, after a layoff of almost a year.

With the Yokozuna Serena, her sister Venus and Kim Clijsters absent for much of the year, this grand slam season has seen much variation in the ladies' game. Clijsters, Na Li, Petra Kvitova, and now Stosur won the big titles. With the exception of Kvitova, these are all ladies in an advanced tennis age.

Below are the ladies' sanyaku ranked players going into the Australian Open 2012. No less than 11 female players hold sanyaku rank at this juncture, showing how spread out over many shoulders success has been recently in the ladies' game (compare this to just 6 male sanyaku ranked players). At this tournament, surprise semfinalist Angelique Kerber and repeat quarterfinalist (after the French Open 2011) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova earned career-first Komusubi (=Junior Champion II) promotions - they are the 58th and 59th female Komusubi of the open era.

Women

Career rank 1/	East	Current Rank	West	Career rank 1/
High Sanyaku (Senior Champion Ranks)
Y	Serena Williams	Y	Kim Clijsters	Y
Y	Venus Williams	Y(ia)	-	-
O	Maria Sharapova*	O	-	-
Lower Sanyaku (Junior Champion Ranks)
O	Na Li	S1	Vera Zvonareva	O
S	Samantha Stosur	S2	-	-
S	Petra Kvitova	K1	Marion Bartoli	S
S	Caroline Wozniacki	K2	Angelique Kerber	K
K	Andrea Petkovic	K3	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	K

1/ Highest sanyaku rank achieved in a player's career
(ia) inactive
* kadoban

A Yokozuna Final for the Men, Serena back in Charge at the Women's

.
Dai-Yokozuna (Great Grand Champion) Rafael Nadal and newly promoted Yokozuna (Grand Champion) Novak Djokovic will play the mens' final of the 2011 U.S. Open, in a repeat of last year's U.S. Open final (that Nadal won) and this year's Wimbledon final (that Djokovic won). Djokovic eliminated the other Dai-Yokozuna, Roger Federer, in a five-setter that Federer should have won, being up 5-3, 40-15 in the fifth. Nadal controlled Ozeki (=Champion) Andy Murray in the other semifinal.

The four U.S. top-rated champions sliced up most of the cake between them at the 2011 slams: of the 16 slam semi-finalists, 14 were called Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, or Murray. The exceptions were David Ferrer, who made the Australian Open semifinals after beating an injured Nadal, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who wrestled Federer down in another five-setter at Wimbledon. Federer got his revenge this time, but Tsonga's quarterfinal participation gets him promoted back to his career-high rank of Sekiwake (=Junior Champion I). The only other sanyaku (championship) ranked player will be ex-Ozeki Tomas Berdych, who had another disappointing tournament and will fall to Komusubi (=Junior Champion II).

In the ladies' game, the only constant is that when Dai-Yokozuna Serena Williams is healthy she dominates. In the final she'll meet a resurgent Samantha Stosur, who will get re-promoted to her former career high rank of Sekiwake as a result (win or lose). Stosur, with her muscular, top-spin based game may have the best chance to trouble Serena at this tournament. The only player that came close for a set was Victoria Azarenka, who had the bad luck of meeting Serena in the third round.

But apart from Serena, the ladies' game continues to be in disarray, with no persistent strong challenger emerging. Serena's sister Venus and Kim Clijsters - the two fellow Yokozuna - could play this role but are too often injured (in fact Venus will lose active Yokozuna status after this tournament, with no strong slam result in a year). Other than that, players that held much promise - like French Open champion Na Li, or Vera Zvonareva (both ex-Ozeki that will be Sekiwake after this tournament) - have failed to maintain the level that their games had earlier this year/by the end 2010, respectively. Petra Kvitova, who looked so strong at Wimbledon, had a poor tournament and drops back to Komusubi. Maria Sharapova goes kadoban right after regaining her Ozeki title at the all England Championships. And world #1 Caroline Woziacki's ultra-defensive game just doesn't suffice to get the results at the slams, as her one-sided semi-final loss against Serena Williams demonstrated.

This said, much talent is peaking through at the ladies', with surprise semifinalists Angelique Kerber and quarterfinalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova earning a first-time Komusubi promotion.